Research Detail
| 2024/07/03 / Erste Group Research |
Poland Special Report | Energy prices to propel inflation upward Poland’s disinflationary period has ended, and a rebound of inflation is unavoidable. The discussion now centers on the anticipated peak and the rate at which inflation will normalize. The most significant driver of this inflationary surge will be the partial deregulation of household energy prices, commencing in July. On top of that, the PPI suggests a continued slowdown in inflation, while the trends in nominal wages and grain futures indicate an opposing momentum. To estimate the impact of the deregulation of energy prices, we have constructed a synthetic price index, formed by the price movements observed among Poland's economic counterparts. Employing assumptions derived from the synthetic models and other leading indicators, our forecast points toward inflation ascend to 4.5% by the year's end, with a further uptick in the first quarter of 2025. Although our predictions are on the lower side relative to the consensus, we acknowledge considerable upside risks associated with our estimates. In light of the projected inflationary rise, the National Bank of Poland has opted to postpone any reduction in interest rates for the year 2024. Consequently, we anticipate that the initial rate cut may materialize in the first half of the next year. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2024/07/03 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Economies Special Report |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | CEE, Poland |
| Currency in focus | Polish Zloty |
| Sector in focus | - |
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