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2024/03/13 / Erste Group Research

GDP outlook receives upgrade

Economy ended 2023 on strong footing with 4Q23 GDP accelerating to 4.3% y/y and wrapping up FY23 GDP growth at 2.8%. Domestic demand remained driving force, especially accelerating private consumption, net exports kept positive tone on shrinking volumes and destocking continued. Outlook for this year got bumped up to 3.1% owing to stronger carry-over effect and further improving private consumption outlook. Investments are again seen adding some support despite more blurred EU funds contribution. Uncertainty related to external demand pick-up and consequently more fragile tourism outlook remain downside risk.

Recent inflation prints are boding well with anticipated inflation moderation trajectory, reflected also in our fine-tuning of average CPI call closer to 3%. Fiscal target (1.9% of GDP gap) is likely to get tailwind from improving GDP prospects, having offsetting effect onto pre-election spending spree. Spread levels tightened further to high double-digit region implying investors continue to price in more positive news from rating agencies. Issuance shifted couple gears up as MoF aims to meet significant chunk of financing needs ahead of the elections. Parliamentary elections are confirmed as first item on the menu for the super-electoral 2024.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-


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