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2024/03/01 / Erste Group Research

Stellt die EZB die Weichen neu?

Nächste Woche steht eine wichtige Sitzung des EZB-Rats bevor. Eine Änderung der Leitzinsen ist zwar so gut wie auszuschließen, die Weichen könnten aber verbal in Richtung einer ersten Zinssenkung gestellt werden. Die derzeitige Schlüsselformulierung im Pressetext des EZB-Rats signalisiert den Märkten den wahrscheinlich erreichten Höhepunkt der Leitzinsen. Hier erwarten wir eine Abänderung, und einen Text, der die Märkte auf eine absehbar erste Zinssenkung vorbereitet.

Diese Woche veröffentlichte die Statistik Austria eine Schätzung des österreichischen BIP-Wachstums 2023 und BIP-Komponenten des 4Q23. Die österreichische Wirtschaft ist demnach 2023 um -0,8% J/J geschrumpft, was im Rahmen unserer Erwartungen (-0,7% J/J) liegt. Der Rückgang der Wirtschaftsleistung betrug im 4Q -1,7% J/J, wobei die Entwicklung im Vergleich zum Vorquartal stagnierte (+0,0% Q/Q).

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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