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2024/01/12 / Erste Group Research

Langsam sinkende Inflation 2024 erwartet

Wir rechnen vorerst nur mit geringen Fortschritten beim weiteren Rückgang der Inflation. Vor allem, weil der starke Abwärtsdruck der Energieinflation in den kommenden Monaten graduell nachlassen wird. Spätestens ab der 2. Jahreshälfte wird der Energiepreis voraussichtlich wieder positive Veränderungsraten ausweisen und dadurch Aufwärtsdruck auf die Inflation ausüben.

Im Gegensatz dazu erwarten wir bei den Preisen für Nahrungsmitteln und der Kerninflation eine kontinuierlich leicht sinkende Dynamik. Bei der Kerninflation wird aus geldpolitischer Sicht der Fokus besonders stark auf der Entwicklung der Preise bei Dienstleistern sein, die sich zuletzt auf einem noch immer überdurchschnittlichen Niveau von 4,0% J/J stabilisiert haben. Wir gehen davon aus, dass die EZB in diesem Bereich einen stabilen kontinuierlichen Abwärtstrend in den kommenden Monaten sehen will.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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