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2023/12/20 / Erste Group Research

CEE Special | Key events to watch in the region in 2024

As we approach the end of 2023, let's take a look at the key events for 2024 in the region. Numerous countries in the region will have their presidential, parliamentary and regional elections in 2024, making it an election-packed year. With inflation continuing to decrease, we expect to see fully-fledged monetary easing in 2024. On the fiscal front, the European Commission plans to reinstate the Excessive Deficit Procedure. We see particular risks for Slovakia to be put under it, next to Romania which is already under the EDP. The rating agencies may also have some work with the countries in the region. Serbia is chasing an investment grade, while Croatia is expected to see another series of upgrades after parliamentary elections. However, Slovakia is likely to be downgraded as the fiscal situation deteriorates.

Elections: Aside from the EU election scheduled for June, CEE countries will hold various elections in 2024: presidential (Croatia, Romania and Slovakia), parliamentary (Croatia, Czechia, Romania), regional (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania).

Ratings: On a positive note, Croatia may see another series of upgrades, once the dust settles after the elections. Serbia is chasing an investment grade rating with a potential timeline for outlook upgrades in 1H24, followed by rating change in 2H24 (conditional on reforms). On the other hand, Slovakia and Romania face credit-negative risks, due to the fiscal situation and high budget deficits.

Fiscal position: Reinstating the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in 2024 means that CEE countries will be scrutinized by the European Commission. Currently, Romania is under the EDP, but we see considerable risks for Slovakia to be put under the EDP as well. Hungary and Poland’s high deficits may also raise alarms at the European level if no credible consolidation plan is presented. According to the Alert Mechanism Report 2024, In-Depth Reviews of macroeconomic imbalances will be published for Hungary, Romania and Slovakia in the first half of 2024.

Monetary policy: 2024 is likely to see fully-fledged monetary easing. Czechia may need to catch up and deliver sizeable (cumulative) interest rate cuts. The key interest rate in Hungary should become single-digit. Romania and Serbia are expected to begin monetary easing in the course of 2024.

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General information

Author	Erste Group Research
Date	2023/12/20
Language
Product name	CEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focus	FX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus	CEE, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia
Currency in focus	Croatian Kuna, Czech Koruna, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu, Serbian dinar
Sector in focus	-
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