Research Detail
| 2023/12/19 / Erste Group Research |
Entering election-packed 2024 After 1H23 GDP data revision trimmed FY23 GDP prospects by 0.4pp, 3Q GDP data came in strong at 2.8% y/y, revealing an improving domestic demand footprint, supportive net exports and ongoing destocking. As for the outlook, private consumption remains backed by a strong disposable income outlook, while investments remain backed by a strong EU-funds profile. An external demand recovery is anticipated for 2024, but downside risks prevail, owing to EU growth outlook uncertainty. FY23 GDP growth is seen landing just shy of 2.5% and remaining in a similar gear in 2024. Recent months revealed further inflation moderation, average in 2023 is seen landing at 8.1%, before moderating towards 3.5% in 2024. The fiscal framework for 2024 brought a more lax policy stance, as expenditures received a pre-election boost and the 1.9% of GDP target suggests that the government is balancing between the electorate and favorable rating prospects for 2024. Yields continued on their rollercoaster ride, while spreads kept a broadly stable pattern averaging around 130bp. Heading into 2024, political heat should increase, as we are heading into an electionpacked year, with EU, parliamentary and presidential elections on the agenda. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/12/19 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | CEE Country Macro Outlook |
| Topic in focus | FX, Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Croatia |
| Currency in focus | Croatian Kuna |
| Sector in focus | - |
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