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2023/12/19 / Erste Group Research

Entering election-packed 2024

After 1H23 GDP data revision trimmed FY23 GDP prospects by 0.4pp, 3Q GDP data came in strong at 2.8% y/y, revealing an improving domestic demand footprint, supportive net exports and ongoing destocking. As for the outlook, private consumption remains backed by a strong disposable income outlook, while investments remain backed by a strong EU-funds profile. An external demand recovery is anticipated for 2024, but downside risks prevail, owing to EU growth outlook uncertainty. FY23 GDP growth is seen landing just shy of 2.5% and remaining in a similar gear in 2024.

Recent months revealed further inflation moderation, average in 2023 is seen landing at 8.1%, before moderating towards 3.5% in 2024. The fiscal framework for 2024 brought a more lax policy stance, as expenditures received a pre-election boost and the 1.9% of GDP target suggests that the government is balancing between the electorate and favorable rating prospects for 2024. Yields continued on their rollercoaster ride, while spreads kept a broadly stable pattern averaging around 130bp. Heading into 2024, political heat should increase, as we are heading into an electionpacked year, with EU, parliamentary and presidential elections on the agenda.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCroatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-


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