Questions on securities

Monday - Friday 09:00-17:00

Quick guide

Choose your country

Research Detail

2023/12/13 / Erste Group Research

Recovery and strong zloty in 2024

After another interesting quarter, we can already see the first signs of a rebound in the Polish economy. The high-frequency indicators have been surprising to the upside, while 3Q GDP data showed annual growth for the first time this year. The anticipation for the next year is a rebound pushed by consumption, which could be pro-inflationary. Therefore, inflation will not be declining at such a fast pace as in previous months, and we see it stabilize at around 5% next year. However, only the new government’s next steps will bring more clarity, not only on the inflation path, but also on the NBP's decisions in 2024.

As the NBP turned hawkish in autumn, the FX rate sharply appreciated, with no indications that this will be reversed soon. Moreover, the EUR 5bn in pre-financing from the RePowerEU chapter, paired with the normalization of relations with the EU, support the zloty even further. The financing needs are covered for this year, with approx. 20% of pre-financing to be done by the end of 2023. Next year, the need to borrow will be slightly higher than in this year, depending on the pace of fiscal consolidation.

PDF Download Download PDF (931kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Country Macro Outlook
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusPoland
Currency in focusPolish Zloty
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.