Research Detail
| 2023/06/16 / Erste Group Research |
Sentiment data for June in focus Next week (June 23), a first flash estimate of Eurozone PMI data for June will be published. We expect a further slight cooling of sentiment among service providers. Industrial sentiment should gradually find a bottom, despite weak demand, due to the already low level. In an environment defined by robust economic data and excessively high inflation rates on the one hand and downside risks from weaker credit on the other, the US Fed opted for the middle course. Interest rates were left unchanged this week and the central bank adopted a wait-and-see stance. However, the quarterly survey of meeting participants at the rate-setting meeting shows relatively clearly that this wait-and-see attitude should come to an end relatively quickly. The outcome of the ECB Governing Council meeting was largely as we had expected. Key interest rates were raised by 25bp and a further rate hike of the same magnitude was clearly envisaged for July. The next meeting with a de facto open outcome is thus in September. Until then, we expect indications of weakening inflation, which would argue in favor of unchanged key rates. |
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General information
| Author | Erste Group Research |
| Date | 2023/06/16 |
| Language |  |
| Product name | Week ahead |
| Topic in focus | Macro/ Fixed income |
| Economy in focus | Eurozone, United States |
| Currency in focus | Euro, US Dollar |
| Sector in focus | - |
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