Questions on securities

Monday - Friday 09:00-17:00

Quick guide

Choose your country

Research Detail

2023/01/09 / Erste Group Research

Global Strategy 1Q 2023

High inflation and increased interest rates should lead to only weak GDP growth. Central banks have not yet completed the cycle of interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty could lead to increased volatility in financial markets for some time. We consider medium and longer maturities of US government bonds in dollars to be attractively valued. In the equity market, we recommend quality stocks with high dividend yields and defensive sectors. In corporate bonds, we prefer the BB segment.

Economy: Despite high inflation and rising interest rates, private consumption in the US is still robust, which is likely due to the strong labour market. Investment spending and the real estate market, on the other hand, are suffering. We expect only weak GDP growth in the US this year. Easing pressure from energy prices, housing costs and food prices should bring the inflation rate down in the course of the year. The countries of the Eurozone are showing divergent developments. While Italy and Spain are benefiting from the recovery in tourism, Germany is feeling the cooling of the global economy. With an improvement in the global growth environment, investment momentum should be able to pick up from the 2nd half of the year. An important factor for the decline in inflation - and thus the recovery of private consumption - will be the development of energy prices. However, a drop in gas and electricity prices will only reach households and companies with a time lag.

Bonds: The interest rate hikes in the US are not yet complete, but the FOMC has already slowed down the momentum of the rate steps. We expect two more rate hikes in February and March, but this will depend on the development of inflation and the labour market. The US yield curve remains inverted as the market assumes that the current level of key interest rates will not persist. Declining inflation rates could fuel speculation of rate cuts later in the year, leading to falling yields across all maturities. The ECB has recently held out the prospect of further significant rate hikes. In March, lower energy prices should dampen the ECB's inflation forecasts, but the inflation target is not expected to be reached until 2025. A sufficiently restrictive interest rate level could be reached in May and yields on longer maturities could fall.

Currencies: Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, the outlook for the economy and inflation should ease. Therefore, safe haven currencies should gradually lose their attractiveness. We expect a slight weakening of the Swiss franc against the euro. The latter should strengthen slightly against the US dollar as interest rate differentials narrow. The gold price is supported by negative real yields.

Shares: The global dividend yield in 2023 is below the level of increased US government bond yields, which currently limits the relative attractiveness of equities. We expect only a moderate increase in the global equity market in 1Q and prefer defensive sectors and quality stocks with high dividend yields.

PDF Download Download PDF (991kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameGlobal Strategy
Topic in focusCredits/ Corporate bonds, Equities, FX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusAustria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Eurozone, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Turkey, United States
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna, Czech Koruna, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu, Serbian dinar, Swiss Franc, Turkish Lira, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.


Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.