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2022/04/25 / Erste Group Research

CEE Special | Is CEE Ready for inflow of Ukrainian refugees?

Based on data from Slovakia (stay permits) and Poland (PESEL numbers), the shares of Ukrainian refugees who stay (mostly women and children) stand at 20% in Slovakia and 32% in Poland, 1.2% and 2.4% of the respective country’s population. Further, there were almost 250tsd stay permits granted in Czechia throughout March. This number accounts for a 2.3% increase in the population within a single month. CEE labor market should accommodate such inflow of workforce. Given the current state of the labor market (low unemployment, riisng vacancy rates), there should be space to accommodate the incoming labor force from Ukraine. Given the demographics (mostly women and children), the immediate impact on the labor market is likely to be focused on female-oriented occupations.

Intuitively, employment in the service sector is likely to be the first choice. However, as data from Slovakia shows, women are finding employment as assembly workers in factories, as well as specialists and administrative workers. In the longer horizon, additional female workforce can also be seen as an opportunity for the health and education sectors. However, employment opportunities will depend on the ability to legalize the education or obtain the appropriate training.

The number of children from Ukraine is without question substantial. Childcare provision (nurseries, kindergartens, schools) will be of key concern, so that the female refugees with smaller dependent children may take part in local labor markets. Therefore, the education system will face a big challenge in placing children from Ukraine in schools or kindergartens.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCEE, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna, Czech Koruna, Euro, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu, Serbian dinar
Sector in focus-


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