Questions on securities

Monday - Friday 09:00-17:00

Quick guide

Choose your country

Research Detail

2022/01/21 / Erste Group Research

Gold Ausblick 2022


Der Goldpreis profitiert von negativen realen Renditen und erhöhten geopolitischen Unsicherheiten. Wir erwarten bis Ende 2022 einen Preisanstieg auf USD 1.930.

Marktsituation: Die leicht negative Preisentwicklung des Goldpreises im letzten Jahr folgt einer sehr starken Aufwärtsbewegung im Jahr 2020 (in USD +25%). Die relative Attraktivität von Gold im Vergleich zu Aktien hat im Vorjahr auch deshalb abgenommen, weil die globalen Unternehmen 2021 Rekordzuwächse bei Umsätzen und Gewinnen erzielt haben.

Angebot & Nachfrage: Ein steigendes Minenangebot und fallende Recycling-Mengen von Altgold führten zu einem unveränderten Goldangebot in den ersten drei Quartalen des Vorjahres. Die Investmentnachfrage durch ETFs ging im letzten Jahr leicht zurück. Die Nachfrage nach Schmuckgold, Barren und Münzen ist angestiegen.

Gold und Zinsniveau: Gold ist im Vergleich zu Staatsanleihen attraktiv, da das Halten von Gold derzeit keine Opportunitätskosten verursacht. Leitzinsanhebungen haben auf die Goldpreisentwicklung keine signifikante Auswirkung. Die von der Fed für 2022 geplanten Zinsanhebungen stehen daher einem Goldpreisanstieg nicht entgegen.

Gold als sicherer Hafen: Historische Beispiele zeigen, dass der Goldpreis regelmäßig von den Folgen von Krisen profitiert hat. Auch im Zuge der COVID-19-Pandemie kam es zu sicheren-Hafen-Flüssen, wobei der Goldpreis erstmals in der Geschichte das Niveau von USD 2.000 überschritt.

PDF Download Download PDF (368kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2022/01/21
Languagede
Product nameMajor Markets Spezial Report
Topic in focusFX
Economy in focus-
Currency in focus-
Sector in focus-
Download



Decline
Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. If you consent, these tools will be used. For more details please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.