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Global Equity Ratings

USA with strong 2Q24 earnings, Europe with weakness

Rating changes: Caterpillar, D.R. Horton, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth Group, LOreal, Merck & Co, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom

While the 2Q reporting season got off to a clearly positive start in the US, the outlook in Europe is only very slightly positive. For 2Q24, earnings growth for the STOXX 600 is only a small +0.8% y/y for the index as a whole. Excluding the volatile energy sector, a decline in earnings of -1.8% y/y is now forecast. Forecasts have deteriorated in the last four weeks. A month ago, market expectations were for an increase of +1.8%.

The medium-term upward trend on the global markets is intact, as the earnings trend in the US remains almost double-digit positive (2Q24e: +9.3% Y/Y). For the year as a whole, earnings growth of +8% is expected in the US. An acceleration to +14% y/y is forecast for 2025. In Europe, the 2025 earnings forecast is +7% y/y.

D.R. Horton: Largest US home builder significantly improves EBIT margins in 2Q, solid outlook for 3Q24

UnitedHealth Group: Strong growth in new customers since the beginning of the year

PDF Download Download PDF (8.5MB)
2024/07/24 / Erste Group Research

USA with strong 2Q24 earnings, Europe with weakness

Rating changes: Caterpillar, D.R. Horton, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth Group, LOreal, Merck & Co, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom

While the 2Q reporting season got off to a clearly positive start in the US, the outlook in Europe is only very slightly positive. For 2Q24, earnings growth for the STOXX 600 is only a small +0.8% y/y for the index as a whole. Excluding the volatile energy sector, a decline in earnings of -1.8% y/y is now forecast. Forecasts have deteriorated in the last four weeks. A month ago, market expectations were for an increase of +1.8%.

The medium-term upward trend on the global markets is intact, as the earnings trend in the US remains almost double-digit positive (2Q24e: +9.3% Y/Y). For the year as a whole, earnings growth of +8% is expected in the US. An acceleration to +14% y/y is forecast for 2025. In Europe, the 2025 earnings forecast is +7% y/y.

D.R. Horton: Largest US home builder significantly improves EBIT margins in 2Q, solid outlook for 3Q24

UnitedHealth Group: Strong growth in new customers since the beginning of the year

PDF Download Download PDF (8.5MB)

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