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2022/07/15 / Erste Group Research

Hohe Inflation belastet Aktienmärkte


Der Aktienmarkt setzt seine Bodenbildung fort. Die Gewinne der letzten Woche wurden zum größten Teil wieder verloren, aber wichtige technische Unterstützungen (insb. S&P 500) haben gehalten. Der S&P 500 verlor auf Wochensicht -2,9%. In Europa fiel der Stoxx 600 um -2,1%. Der Emerging Market Index fiel in EUR um -2,6% zu.

Besonders die weiterhin hohe Inflation in den USA (Juni: 9,1%) sowie die schwachen Ergebnisse der US-Banken belasteten die Aktienmärkte. Brent Öl fiel aufgrund der Konjunktursorgen diese Woche stark und notiert jetzt bei USD auf jetzt USD 97,8/ Barrel (-7%). In Europa stabilisierten sich der Erdgas- und Strompreis auf hohem Niveau. Der EUR fiel auf Parität zum USD (-4%), weshalb Konsumenten und Produzenten in Europa von den gefallenen Energiepreise weniger profitieren.

Ausblick: Nächste Woche setzt sich in den USA die Berichtssaison mit Bank of America (Mo.) und Netflix (Di.) fort. In Europa startet die Q2-Berichtsaison u.a. mit Novartis (Di.), ASML (Mi.) und SAP (Do.). Wir erwarten eine anhaltende Bodenbildung mit leicht positiven Performances global und präferieren defensive Konsum und Technologiewerte, sowie US-Aktien.

Während der DAX und der S&P500 mit einem deutlichen Minus aus der Woche gingen, konnte der ATX fast flach schließen (-0,1%).Die Märkte preisen zunehmend das Risiko einer Rezession in Europa und in den USA ein, was an den Rohstoffmärkten zunehmend sichtbar wird. Die Furcht vor einer Gas-Krise und Rezession spiegelt sich auch an den Devisenmärkten wieder.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2022/07/15
Languagede
Product nameEquity Weekly
Topic in focusEquities
Economy in focusAustria
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focusBasic Resources, Construction & Material, Telecommunications
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