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2023/02/27 / Erste Group Research

Geringer Anstieg globaler Aktien erwartet

Mittlerweile ist die Berichtssaison in den USA schon sehr weit fortgeschritten. 80% der US-Unternehmen haben ihre 4Q-Ergebnisse berichtet und dabei sind bei 73% der Firmen die Gewinne/Aktie höher ausgefallen als erwartet. Die 4Q Gewinne/Aktie sind bei US-Unternehmen bisher insgesamt um -4,7% (j/j) gesunken. Für das 1Q 2023 wird ein Rückgang um -5,4% (j/j) erwartet und für das 2Q eine Abschwächung um -3,4 % (j/j). Ein positives Gewinnwachstum wird dann ab dem 3.Quartal erwartet (+3,3% j/j).

Für das Gesamtjahr 2023 wird ein leichtes Gewinnwachstum von +2,2% (j/j) erwartet. Das 12-Monats-KGV für den USA 500 Index liegt bei 17,7x. Dieses KGV liegt unter dem 5-Jahres-Durchschnitt (18,5x), aber über dem 10-Jahres-Durchschnitt (17,2x). Aufgrund der neutralen Bewertung, der nur leicht positiven Gewinndynamik und der hohen Zinsen erwarten wir nur eine geringen Anstieg des globalen Aktienindex in den nächsten Monaten.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameEmpfehlungsliste
Topic in focusEquities
Economy in focusEurozone, Germany, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States
Currency in focusBritish Pound, Euro, Swiss Franc, US Dollar
Sector in focusAutomobiles & Parts, Banks, Basic Resources, Chemicals, Construction & Material, Financial Services, Food & Beverage, Health Care, Industrial Goods & Services, Insurance, Media, Oil & Gas, Personal & Household Goods, Retail, Technology, Telecommunications, Travel & Leisure, Utilities

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