|2022/12/16 / Erste Group Research|
Economic outlook brightens somewhat
Despite the continuing concerns and high degree of uncertainty regarding the outlook, initial sentiment indicators have recently begun to brighten somewhat. In addition, the financial markets are also signaling an increase in investors' appetite for risk through exchange rates (in particular the weakening of the US dollar against all major currencies) and a narrowing of risk premiums on the bond market.
This is mainly due to the increasing likelihood that inflationary dynamics have finally peaked. As a result, the most important central banks have recently been able to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes somewhat. Against this backdrop, we believe the outlook for the Eurozone economy in 2023 has brightened somewhat.
We are therefore raising our GDP forecast for the Eurozone to +3.4% in 2022 (previously +3.2%) and to +0.5% in 2023 (previously +0.3%). Thanks to funding from the EU recovery plan, we also expect Italy and Spain to outperform in 2023.
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|Author||Erste Group Research|
|Product name||Week ahead|
|Topic in focus||Macro/ Fixed income|
|Economy in focus||Eurozone, United States|
|Currency in focus||Euro, US Dollar|
|Sector in focus||-|
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