Research Detail

2022/09/16 / Erste Group Research

What comes after next big US interest rate move?
Next week, the interest rate-setting body of the US Federal Reserve FOMC will meet. There is a high probability of a 75 basis point (bp) rate hike, which will then bring the policy rate into the 3-3.25% range. Following the latest inflation figures for August, the probability of a 100bp rate hike has also increased, but we do not expect it. The new survey of FOMC meeting participants will show what happens after next week's meeting and will be the most exciting question for the markets.

For the Eurozone a first flash estimate of PMI data for September will be published. In August, sentiment in both manufacturing and service providers fell further. In particular, manufacturing suffered from a sharp decline in new orders in August. However, a weakening of the order situation was also noticeable among service providers. Now that the economic environment has hardly improved in September, we expect at best a stabilization of PMI data.

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General information

Author	Erste Group Research
Date	2022/09/16
Language
Product name	Week ahead
Topic in focus	Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focus	Eurozone, United States
Currency in focus	Euro, US Dollar
Sector in focus	-
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