|2022/09/02 / Erste Group Research|
Markets await next ECB interest rate move
Next week, the ECB Governing Council will meet. It is clear that there will be an interest rate hike of at least 50 basis points (bp). Most recently, some members even brought a hike of 75bp into play. However, we assume that this group will remain a minority. Rather, the approach of ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane should prevail, who has advocated a steady vs. fast approach.
Due to Europe’s severe energy crisis, we have this week lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone to 1.0%, from 1.8% previously. The significant rise in electricity and gas prices in recent weeks has increased the risk of a prolonged high level of inflation in the Eurozone. In our view, this will have an even stronger dampening effect on consumption as well as investment activity.
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|Author||Erste Group Research|
|Product name||Week ahead|
|Topic in focus||Macro/ Fixed income|
|Economy in focus||Eurozone, United States|
|Currency in focus||Euro, US Dollar|
|Sector in focus||-|
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