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2021/12/09 / Erste Group Research

EUR/USD - Korrektur erwartet

EURUSD sank im Verlauf des November bis auf 1,12, dann setzte allerdings eine Stabilisierung um 1,13 ein. Wir erwarten nur eine Zinsanhebung in den USA nächstes Jahr, der Markt mehr als zwei. Eine Rückbildung der Zinserwartungen sollte zu einer Korrektur von EURUSD auf 1,15 führen.

Die zuletzt stark steigenden Neuinfektionen mit COVID-19 in der Eurozone haben den Euro gegenüber dem Yen geschwächt. Auf dem aktuellen Niveau befindet sich der Yen in einem Unterstützungsbereich. Wenn sich das Infektionsgeschehen in der Eurozone etwas entspannt, dann könnte dies zu einer Abschwächung des Yen in den kommenden Wochen führen.

In den letzten Handelswochen befestigte der Franken weiter zum Euro bis auf ein Niveau von 1,04. Ausschlaggebend dafür sind unter anderem rasch steigende Neuinfektionen mit COVID-19, vor allem in Deutschland. Darüber hinaus weitete sich die Inflationsdifferenz zwischen der Schweiz und der Eurozone durch einen historischen Höchststand der Inflation der Eurozone im November weiter auf 3,4% aus.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/12/09
Languagede
Product nameDevisen News
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusJapan, Switzerland, United States
Currency in focusSwiss Franc, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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