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2020/07/07 / Erste Group Research

Devisennews | Langsame Abschwächung des USD erwartet

Nach einem schnellen Anstieg Ende Mai, der den Euro kurzfristig bis auf knapp unter 1,14 Dollar steigen ließ, pendelt der Wechselkurs seit Wochen zwischen 1,12 und 1,13. Mittelfristig erwarten wir eine Befestigung des Euro, da der Dollar auf Basis der Zinsdifferenz noch immer hoch bewertet scheint.

Trotz der Ausbreitung von COVID-19 setzte mit Mai eine graduelle Erholung der globalen Konjunktur durch Lockerung von Quarantäne-Maßnahmen ein. In diesem Umfeld erwarten wie eine Fortsetzung der graduellen Abschwächung des Yen zum Euro, die Anfang Mai eingesetzt hat.

Nachdem die COVID-19 Ansteckungen in der Eurozone derzeit unter Kontrolle sind sollten sich die Konjunkturdaten der Eurozone weiter aufhellen. In diesem Umfeld würden wir eine unveränderte Geldpolitik der EZB erwarten und somit sollte sich der Franken gegenüber dem Euro graduell abschwächen.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameDevisen News
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusJapan, Switzerland, United States
Currency in focusSwiss Franc, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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