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2022/05/13 / Erste Group Research

Bewertungen unter langjährige Mittel gefallen


Aufgrund der weiterhin angespannten COVID Lage in China und den hohen Inflationsraten setzte der Weltaktienindex mit einem Minus von 4,3% seinen Abwärtstrend fort. Der S&P 500 verlor -5,2%, der Stoxx 600 fiel um -3,2%. Besonders die Sektoren Technologie und zyklischer Konsum fielen deutlich (-10%). Aber auch Immobilien, Industrie, Finanzen und Rohstoffe verloren überdurchschnittlich.

Die Bewertungen anhand des KGVs sind in den USA (19,8x) und in Europa (13,1x) nach den Korrekturen unter die langfristigen Mittelwerte gefallen (siehe Chart). Bei den Prognosen für die Gewinne richtet sich der Ausblick der Investoren schon auf das kommende Jahr. Die Konsens-Erwartungen für den operativen Gewinn 2023e zeigen einen leicht fallenden Trend auf jetzt erwartete +3,6% j/j. In diesem Jahr sollte das Wachstum noch +14,4% betragen.

Die COVID-Situation in China, sowie Auswirkungen von Sanktionen am Energiemarkt bleiben die bestimmenden Kräfte für Aktien in den kommenden Wochen. Wir erwarten einen Seitwärtstrend am globalen Aktienmarkt.

Der ATX schloss diese Woche 3,7% tiefer, konnte aber die 3,000-Punkte-Marke verteidigen. Besonders Grundstoffwerte wurden verkauft, in Wien traf dies Wienerberger und Lenzing. Weiter unter Druck stand der Verbund trotz Rekordzahlen und angehobenem Ausblick. Der Fokus lag diese Woche in Wien erneut auf Quartals-Updates. Verbund und Wienerberger zeigten hier eine starke Entwicklung, was jedoch nicht in Kursgewinne mündete. Charttechnisch liegt die nächste Hürde nach oben bei 3.200 Punkten wohl noch außer Reichweite.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2022/05/13
Languagede
Product nameEquity Weekly
Topic in focusEquities
Economy in focusAustria
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focusBanks, Construction & Material, Food & Beverage, Industrial Goods & Services, Oil & Gas, Utilities
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Erste Group related products

Name  ISIN# Erste Group products
Addiko BankAT000ADDIKO00
AgranaAT000AGRANA30
Austrian PostAT0000APOST435
OMVAT0000743059108
VerbundAT0000746409102
WienerbergerAT000083170677



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