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2020/09/11 / Erste Group Research

Volatile Seitwärtsbewegung erwartet


Globale Aktien: Der globale Aktienmarktindex gab in der letzten Woche in EUR um -2,6% nach. Ausschlaggebend dafür war die Fortsetzung einer technischen Korrektur des US-Aktienmarktes. Der europäische Leitindex tendierte positiv.

Die Economic Surprise Indizes befinden sich derzeit für alle wichtigen Länder/Regionen im positiven Bereich. Es überwiegen die positiven Überraschungen der Wirtschaftsdaten die negativen Überraschungen. Allerdings hat in den letzten Wochen die positive Dynamik nachgelassen. Für europäische Firmen wird erwartet, dass im ersten Quartal nächsten Jahres wieder Gewinnzuwächse (j/j) erwirtschaftet werden.

Ausblick: Mittelfristig sollte der globale Aktienmarkt volatil seitwärts tendieren. Die aktuelle technische Korrektur, von der vor allem der US-Aktienmarkt betroffen ist, dürfte noch einige Tage andauern.

Der ATX schloss diese Woche mit + 1,4% leicht höher, pendelt aber weiterhin in seiner Trading Range zwischen 2.200 und 2.300 Punkten. Auf Unternehmensebene lag in Österreich nur eine sehr magere Meldungslage vor. Die EZB-Sitzung diese Woche lieferte auch keine wesentlichen neuen Impulse. Neue Schritte zur Krisenbekämpfung wurden nicht gesetzt, die Projektionen zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung 2020 wurden jedoch leicht angehoben (BIP-Minus bei -8% statt – 8,7%). Wir denken, dass der ATX auch kommende Woche noch nicht aus seiner Trading Range ausbrechen wird.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2020/09/11
Languagede
Product nameEquity Weekly
Topic in focusEquities
Economy in focusAustria
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focusBasic Resources, Health Care, Industrial Goods & Services
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