Questions on securities

Monday - Friday 09:00-17:00

Quick guide

Choose your country

Research Detail

2020/07/08 / Erste Group Research

CEE Special | Challenge no. 5 Euro adoption


In the fifth CEE Special Report from the series entitled "CEE - 10 challenges for the new decade", we look at prospects for euro adoption in the CEE region. Croatia seems set to enter ERM-II in July. Adoption of the euro can be expected in 2023-24 at the earliest, with the final timing dependent on post-COVID-19 economic and fiscal adjustment. Hungary and Romania enjoy a high level of public support for euro adoption, but lack the preparation.

Slovakia and Slovenia are so far the only two CEE countries that have fully integrated into the EU in the sense that they have become members of the Eurozone. After the Baltics joined the Eurozone in 2011-15 and the UK decided to leave the EU, the weight and voice of non-euro countries has declined. We expect that, during this decade, at least one country, Croatia, will become a new member of the Euro Area. Croatia’s strong aspiration for euro adoption should be confirmed very soon by entering ERM-II, where it is likely to stay for at least two years before the final assessment of Maastricht criteria is conducted.

Croatia is the only non-euro country that meets all Maastricht criteria except the last one – participation in ERM-II. Before being allowed to enter ERM-II, Croatia had to complete some new tasks that had not been required for other member states before – establishing close cooperation with the ECB, which included an asset quality review of the five systemically important banks, and making some prior policy commitments related to macro-prudential, anti-money laundering and governance measures.


PDF Download Download PDF (230kB)

General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2020/07/08
Languageen
Product nameCEE Economies Special Report
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusCEE, Croatia
Currency in focusCroatian Kuna
Sector in focus-
Download





Accept

We use cookies and web analysis software to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this website, you consent for these tools to be used. For more details and how to opt out of these, please read our Data protection policy.

INFORMATION FOR PRIVATE CLIENTS / CONSUMERS

Any information, material and services regarding financial instruments and securities provided by Erste Group Bank AG or any of its affiliates (collectively “Erste Group“) on this and any linked website hereafter (jointly the “Websites”) shall be exclusively to investors who are not subject to any legal sale or purchase restrictions (the “Interested Party“).

The publication and distribution of information as well as offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites is prohibited by law in some jurisdictions. For this reason, persons in countries in which the publication as well as the offering and selling of products and services described on the Websites are not permitted by law, must not enter the Websites and/or acquire the products displayed on the Websites.

Neither Erste Group nor any third party shall offer access to the Websites or offer the products to especially, but not limited to citizen/residents of the United States and “U.S. person” (as defined in Regulation S under the US Securities Act 1933 as amended). For this reason, the distribution or redistribution of the information, materials and products into United States or into any other jurisdiction where it is not permitted under the applicable law, as well as to the citizens/residents of these countries shall be prohibited. The securities displayed on the Websites have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and trading in the securities has not been approved for purposes of the US Commodities Exchange Act of 1936. For this reason the securities may, inter alia, not be offered, sold or delivered within the United States or, for the account and benefit of U.S. persons.

The Interested Party is solely responsible to examine, whether he may enter the Websites under the law applicable to it. Erste Group shall not be responsible for the distribution of content of any of the Websites to individuals or entities which provide false information about their right to enter the Websites. For this reason Erste Group shall not be liable for any legal claims or damages which may result from the unauthorized entering or reading of the Websites.

By agreeing to this hereto, the Interested Party confirms that
(i) It has read, understood and accepted this Information and the Disclaimer;
(ii) It informed itself about any possible legal restriction and warrants that it is not restricted or prohibited to enter the Websites according to any law applicable; and
(iii) It does not make available the contents of the Websites to any person who is not qualified by law to enter the Websites.