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2023/06/05 / Erste Group Research

Wann sinkt die Inflation?

Sowohl die EZB als auch die US-Fed haben das Tempo der Zinserhöhungen seit dem Jahresbeginn reduziert. Dies war nur bedingt auf Fortschritte bei der Inflationsbekämpfung zurück zu führen. Die Inflationsrate ist zwar deutlich gesunken, aber dies kam maßgeblich von den Energiepreisen, die kaum auf Zinsen reagieren. Bei der Kerninflation hat es bis jetzt hingegen geringe (USA) bzw. bestenfalls erste (EZ) Fortschritte gegeben.

Das Umfeld spricht zwar für nachlassenden Inflationsdruck, ganz so einfach ist die Sache aber nicht. Denn die Inflation und zumindest in den USA auch die Konjunktur haben sich robuster gezeigt, als in einem seit längerem schwierigen Umfeld erwartet worden war.

Ganz so einfach ist die Sache aber nicht, wäre auch eine gute Überschrift für das Sonderthema gewesen, in dem wir uns mit der Energiewende und den Auswirkungen auf die Strompreise beschäftigen. Stattdessen trägt das Kapitel die Überschrift Viele Ziele sind noch kein Plan, was noch besser passt.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameZinsausblick Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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