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2022/12/05 / Erste Group Research

Covered Bond Ausblick 2023

Der Covered Bond Markt konnte dieses Jahr ein neues Rekordvolumen an Neuemissionen verzeichnen. Für 2023 rechnen wir mit einer ebenfalls überdurchschnittlichen Emissionsaktivität, wenn auch das Volumen mit geschätzt EUR 180-190 Mrd. etwas unterhalb dem diesjährigen Rekordwert liegen dürfte.

Für das kommende Jahr sollten die Wirtschaftsentwicklung, ein fortschreitender Rückzug der EZB und das Covered Bond Angebot die wichtigsten Einflussfaktoren auf die Covered Bond Spreads sein. Wir gehen von einer Fortsetzung des bisherigen Trends zu weiteren Covered Bond Swapspreads im kommenden Jahr aus, wenn auch nicht notwendigerweise mit gleicher Dynamik.

Ausgehend von den starken Preisanstiegen der letzten Jahre kann es nach unseren Einschätzungen am europäischen Wohnimmobilienmarkt zu einer Korrektur der Wohnimmobilienpreise in den einzelnen Ländern kommen. Bei einer Normalisierung auf einem Preisniveau wie vor der Corona-Pandemie wäre nicht zwingend ein starker Anstieg von Kreditausfällen zu vernehmen, vor allem, wenn es zu keinem starken Abschwung des derzeit noch stabilen Arbeitsmarktes kommt.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2022/12/05
Languagede
Product nameCredit News DE
Topic in focusCredits/ Corporate bonds
Economy in focusAustria, Eurozone
Currency in focusEuro
Sector in focus-
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