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2022/07/21 / Erste Group Research

Euro unter Druck

Die Unsicherheit über die Gasversorgung Europas wird hoch bleiben und dies spricht für einen anhaltend schwachen Euro. Wir erwarten daher EURUSD vorerst in einer Bandbreite von 1 – 1,05. Mit dem Ende des Winters sollte die Angst vor Gas-Lieferkürzungen nachlassen und der Euro zulegen.

Wir rechnen längerfristig eher mit einem festeren Yen. Sollte die Bank of Japan die Kontrolle der Zinskurve aufheben, dann würde auch in Japan das Renditeniveau steigen. Dies könnte eine Befestigung des Yen zum Euro noch verstärken.

Die sich aktuell eintrübenden Konjunkturaussichten sollten sich nachhaltig dämpfend auf das Renditeniveau der Eurozone auswirken. In diesem Umfeld spricht daher sehr wenig für einen schwächeren Franken. Im Fall der Zuspitzung von geopolitischen Risiken könnte der Franken zum Euro jederzeit weiter befestigen.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Product nameDevisen News
Topic in focusFX, Macro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, Japan, Switzerland, United States
Currency in focusEuro, Swiss Franc, US Dollar
Sector in focus-


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