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2021/07/13 / Erste Group Research

Aufschwung tritt in die nächste Phase ein

Dank eines raschen Impffortschritts in den Industrieländern tritt der Aufschwung in seine nächste Phase. In den USA und in der EU konnte der Dienstleistungssektor bereits wieder nachhaltig hochgefahren werden. Größtes Risiko für den Wirtschaftsausblick im 2. Halbjahr wäre das Durchbrechen des aktuellen Impfschutzes der breiten Bevölkerung durch eine Virusmutation.

Nach dem Ende der Einschränkungsmaßnahmen erwarten wir eine dynamische Erholung der Eurozone Konjunktur im 2. Halbjahr. Für 2021 prognostizieren wir ein BIP-Wachstum von +4,4%. Die Finanzmittel des EU-Aufbauplans werden Ländern wie Italien und Spanien 2022 zu einem substantiellen Wachstumsschub verhelfen. Wir rechnen daher für 2022 mit anhaltend hoher Wachstumsdynamik der Eurozone von +4,1%.

Im 1. Halbjahr waren die Energiepreise der Haupttreiber für den Anstieg der Gesamtinflation der Eurozone. Dank des Abklingens von Basiseffekten sollte der Aufwärtsdruck der Energiepreise im 2. Halbjahr nachlassen. Aufgrund von Sondereffekten durch die Pandemie rechnen wir dafür mit temporärem Aufwärtsdruck der Kerninflation auf die Gesamtinflation im 2. Halbjahr.

Unterstützt durch zwei Konjunkturprogramme wies das 1Q in den USA das erwartet hohe Wirtschaftswachstum aus. Zumindest das zweite Konjunkturpaket, verbunden mit weiteren Öffnungsschritten der Wirtschaft, spricht für eine abermalige Beschleunigung der Konjunktur im zweiten Quartal. Der Ausblick für das soeben begonnene dritte Quartal ist ebenfalls positiv.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/07/13
Languagede
Product nameWirtschaftsausblick Eurozone, USA
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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