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2021/05/12 / Erste Group Research

EU-Wiederaufbauplan kommt, auch auf den Anleihemarkt

Die kürzlich veröffentlichten Frühlings-Wirtschaftsprognosen der Europäischen Kommission zeigten eine bessere Einschätzung der Konjunktur in diesem und im nächsten Jahr als noch zu Beginn des Jahres. Ein wesentlicher Grund für die Aufwärtsrevision war die Aussicht auf baldige Auswirkungen des europäischen Wiederaufbauplans (Next Generation EU). Tatsächlich hat die Umsetzung an Fahrt aufgenommen. Sobald die rechtlichen Grundlagen geschaffen sind, wird die Europäische Kommission mit der Emission von Anleihen zur Finanzierung von Next Generation EU beginnen, was bereits im Juni der Fall sein könnte.

Angesichts des raschen Impffortschritts und der bereits erfolgten Öffnungsschritte in einigen Ländern der Eurozone (z.B. Spanien) rechnen wir mit einem deutlichen Anstieg der Stimmung der Dienstleister im Mai (Veröffentlichung am 21. Mai). Demgegenüber rechnen wir bei der Industrie mit einem Abflachen bzw. leichten Absinken der Stimmung von historischen Höchstständen im April.

Der dynamische Anstieg globaler Rohstoffpreise hat in den letzten Wochen für Verunsicherung gesorgt. Allerdings befinden sich trotz der jüngsten Anstiege die Preise der wichtigsten Rohstoffe noch immer unter den historischen Höchstständen. Die zentrale Frage ist, ob der aktuelle Anstieg der Rohstoffpreise nachhaltigen Einfluss auf die Inflation der Eurozone haben könnte.

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General information

AuthorErste Group Research
Date2021/05/12
Languagede
Product nameWochenausblick
Topic in focusMacro/ Fixed income
Economy in focusEurozone, United States
Currency in focusEuro, US Dollar
Sector in focus-
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