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USA Earnings Season so far above Expectations


Rating Changes: Shell, Arthur J. Gallagher, Alfa Laval, PepsiCo

The reporting season in the USA has so far been well above expectations. The earnings growth forecast for 3Q23 is now +2.6% year-on-year. Excluding the energy sector, the growth rate for the index is +7.4%. Moreover, of the 146 corporations in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date, 80% have done so above market expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The forecast for 3Q sales growth is +1.2% (excl. energy: +3.6%).

In Europe, earnings are expected to decline by -9.7% year-on-year in 3Q23 (excl. energy: +1.7%). Sales for the final quarter are expected to fall by 5.3% compared to 3Q22 (excl. energy: -1.3%). So far, 58 out of 600 companies have reported Q3 results. Only 40% achieved earnings that exceeded forecasts. On historical average, 54% beat earnings per share expectations.

Alphabet: Advertising revenue up in 3Q, Google Cloud revenue up +22% Y/Y

JPMorgan: Strong 3Q, profit incl. First Republic up +35%, provisions down significantly

PDF Download Download PDF (6.2MB)
2023/10/27 / Erste Group Research

USA Earnings Season so far above Expectations


Rating Changes: Shell, Arthur J. Gallagher, Alfa Laval, PepsiCo

The reporting season in the USA has so far been well above expectations. The earnings growth forecast for 3Q23 is now +2.6% year-on-year. Excluding the energy sector, the growth rate for the index is +7.4%. Moreover, of the 146 corporations in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date, 80% have done so above market expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The forecast for 3Q sales growth is +1.2% (excl. energy: +3.6%).

In Europe, earnings are expected to decline by -9.7% year-on-year in 3Q23 (excl. energy: +1.7%). Sales for the final quarter are expected to fall by 5.3% compared to 3Q22 (excl. energy: -1.3%). So far, 58 out of 600 companies have reported Q3 results. Only 40% achieved earnings that exceeded forecasts. On historical average, 54% beat earnings per share expectations.

Alphabet: Advertising revenue up in 3Q, Google Cloud revenue up +22% Y/Y

JPMorgan: Strong 3Q, profit incl. First Republic up +35%, provisions down significantly

PDF Download Download PDF (6.2MB)

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BMWDE000519000336
BNP ParibasFR00001311040



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